March 19, 2008
Are Latte and Hair Recession Depression Proof?

Funny thing, but I've noticed a drastic drop-off in business at the two local Starbucks stores that I oftentimes visit. In fact, I used to go once or twice a week, on weekday mornings before work. As inflation nips at my budget I've cut back to approximately once every two weeks. The lack of cars in the lot and customers in the store is all too apparent. At prime time, in the mornings, it used to be fairly busy in the store, and the drive-in was always packed. Now there's not even a line for the drive-in. I've also noted that the teenagers with Mom and Dad's credit card are no longer a fixed presence in the before-school hours. People are turning their backs on those $8 latte-and-scone mornings because it's just not an option for many during an economic squeeze. It's almost creepy to see how empty the place is each morning. This isn't just a local phenomenon, though Michigan is getting nailed in terms of the Depression. A friend of mine, on the west coast, has said the same thing about his local Starbucks stores. But the new CEO thinks he has found the right gimmick to drum up business.

Coffee again will be freshly ground and scooped in most U.S. locations so that the stores smell like coffee shops again.

Starbucks (SBUX) CEO Howard Schultz will announce that big "back-to-the-future" change — along with several others — at Wednesday's annual meeting in Seattle.

...Schultz — acting as both doctor and patient — will try to convince shareholders that he can fix what ails the chain.

What "ails the chain" is the overall economy, which is in the crapper thanks to the Fed's numerous money-pumping schemes and interventionist tactics as they've steered Americans toward a false sense of security with their endless promises of prosperity directed by their monetary and social engineering. Starbucks will, at some point, have to close stores - lots of them - in order to stay in business.

The folks at the hair shop I frequent tell me that business is really bad. Their customers don't get their hair cut as as often, and they are starting to pass on the big-ticket items: coloring and special-occasion hair prep. My own stylist had to leave Michigan for half his time, and he established a 2nd business in Scottsdale, AZ. He flies back and forth to stay afloat. A couple of years ago, business was very brisk in Scottsdale. Lots of new money and cheap credit, and people with high-paying, seemingly secure jobs. No longer. He said he expects to end the Scottsdale business by this summer. Business has tanked there, too. The stylists just can't stay busy. People are going much longer in between cuts, or, they are leaving their $45-$65-per-cut stylists and are flocking to the discount competitors that charge $25 or less.

When I was at the salon a few days ago, the word used among customers and workers was "Depression." They all thought they were going to see much worse times, and this is a far cry from the rosy picture that our great leaders try to paint. Just a small sampling, but interesting observations nonetheless.

Posted by Karen De Coster